Georgia: April 9th protests could be explosive

Much like Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, the Rose Revolution in Georgia was much more unified in what it opposed than in what it wanted. Today, former allies of the Rose Revolution are bitter political enemies. President Mikheil Saakashvili, a key U.S. ally and a leader of the Revolution, has seen his support decline since Georgia’s disastrous war with Russia last August.

Saakashvili was wildly popular when first elected in 2004, but he now faces strong, though fractious opposition throughout the country. He’s accused of a long list of political abuses. A partial accounting includes: election tampering, using force against protesters, staging a ‘terrorist’ attack during the last elections, and censoring media to exclude the opposition. Supporters of the president point out, however, that these claims of censorship are generally made on nationally-broadcast TV stations. Also, print media is generally hostile to Saakashvili, which belies too strong a claim to censorship. Nevertheless, Freedom House downgraded Georgia from “free” to “partly free” in 2008, based largely on concerns about electoral democracy.

Opposition groups are planning a massive series of protests for April 9th, a date with strong national associations. It was on April 9th, 1989 that the Soviets cracked down on a Georgian pro-independence protest. Opposition figures are calling for the resignation of Saakashvili, and hope to use the April “mass permanent meeting” to springboard such a development.

The political stakes have definitely risen in the past few days. Internal security agents have begun arresting opposition figures, nine from Nino Burdzhanadze’s party, and two others from a minor party, for attempting to buy weaponry. Saakashvili claims that opponents are planning a military coup against his administration. The opposition, meanwhile, ridicules the charges, arguing that Saakashvili is building a case so that he can crackdown on the upcoming protests.

What gives some credibility to Saakashvili are a pair of videos released by the government which appear to show opposition figures planning a coup. I’m linking them up without comment, because I neither speak Georgian nor have the technical knowledge to spot tampering.

From the perspective of American national interests, this seems to be something of a blue-on-blue fight. Both Saakashvili and his primary opponent, former Rose revolutionary Nino Burdzhanadze, orient toward the United States. Much as with Ukraine, it’s heartbreaking to see fratricide, when the real threat to both Georgia and Ukraine stems from Russia. But politics is always messy, cultural change comes slowly, and revolutions usually disappoint their participants. Best to take a long view when it comes to politics in the former Soviet Union.

Dagestan heats up for the Russians

Five Russian soldiers and at least 14 militants are dead in Dagestan (which incidentally sounds like a GREAT title for a thriller.) The clashes took place on Thursday, about thirty klicks from the capital of Makhachkala. Russia is currently stepping-up operations against Dagestani separatists. At the same time, economic problems and tightened security measures seem to be leading young Dagestani men into armed opposition to Moscow.

Among the dead, Russian security forces found at least three Arab fighters. Foreign fighters are common among Islamic militant groups throughout Asia, and Arab Wahabbists have been a major catalyst in radicalizing parts of Dagestan.

For a quick overview on the region of Dagestan, here’s a BBC background piece.

Does the Kremlin have online goon squads?

I’m tempted to say something about bears and the woods/popes and Catholicism.

The article over at OpenDemocracy is a reprint of an Expertiza.ru article from about a year ago. But it’s still interesting reading. The editor of Expertiza asserts that the Russian FSB has legions of totalitarian supporters which mob anti-government forums, spewing anti-American, anti-Semitic, anti-democratic bile. In just a few years, opinion on these sites has shifted from majority pro-democracy to overwhelmingly authoritarian.

Could some of this be accounted for by genuine shifts in public opinion? Certainly. But the editor argues strongly that this is a coordinated effort. He calls them the “G Team.”

“The “G team” invariably purveys an eclectic array of views and values which correspond to the latest directions of state PR, the ideology and policies of the Russian leadership. Any change in state thinking leads to a dramatic change in the views of all members of the “G team” …

The “G team” bursting with love and respect for the FSB in all its historical forms, starting with the Cheka. The “G team” calls all the “reincarnations” of the hawks the “neo-nobility”, “law enforcement” and “state-forming patriotic” bodies, whose activities, including the GULAG, should be something to be proud of for Russians!”

Anyone surprised?

HT: Eternal Remont for the cool pic!

Russia’s military soon to acquire 1990s-level tech marvels

While Russians celebrated a quick win over Georgia, after-action analysis revealed major weaknesses in the Russian military. Outdated equipment, poorly trained troops, weak intelligence, and spotty logistics are only a partial list of problems facing the Russian military.

Much like neighboring Ukraine, Russia has long needed to downsize its military. This would allow it to devote resources to better training and equipment for the remaining soldiers. Stalin rightly said that quantity has a quality all its own, but that was then. As the Israelis have shown repeatedly, small armies equipped with American gear can handily defeat massive, Russian-armed forces.

As with Ukraine, the officer corps in Russia has resisted reductions in force size, particularly of the officer corps. However, the recent economic crisis is helping to facilitate changes in Russian force structure. And according to some analysts, the Kremlin is also using the United States as a bugbear to force through changes, using the “threat” of NATO to convince critics of the need for reform.

Yesterday, President Medvedev announced a “comprehensive rearmament” of the Russian military. Despite the poor economy, he plans to spend $43 billion dollars on weapons modernization in the near term. This is part of a larger $200 billion spending plan initiated last year. This plan includes the following acquisitions: “renewal of its [Russia's] land-based arsenal of intercontinental missiles, build a fleet of nuclear submarines designed to fire advanced Bulava-3 underwater-launched missiles, add to its force of strategic bombers, and build many new warships, including up to six aircraft carriers.”

Some of this is plainly nonsense and saber-rattling. The Russians plan to spend $200 billion all-told on rearmament. Don’t plan on six new Russian carriers, not even midgety Russian carriers. $200 billion buys a lot of toys, but not an unlimited amount.

Georgian separatists to finally receive promised Moscow aid?

Long after the guns have silenced in Georgia, the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia have seen little of the aid promised by Moscow. On Monday, Kommersant published a close look at conditions in South Ossetia. What they found was stark — little has been rebuilt, aid from Moscow has dried up, and the people are increasingly dissatisfied with the Russians.

The comments of Uruzmag Dzhioev, a gymnasium director, are representative of most Ossetians interviewed by Kommersant: “They [Russians] say to us, ‘We saved you. But Russia didn’t save us here. She saved herself, her interests in the region. The West proposed that we stay in Georgia and receive quick membership in the EU… We are honest with Moscow, but she isn’t honest with us. If Russia doesn’t want to rebuild South Ossetia, does that mean we’ll have another war?”

Such remarks seem to have stung the Russians, particularly after they were picked up by the English-language press. The Russians announced today that they’re directing $226 million dollars to the two regions.

Georgian separatists would do well to remember a truth Americans learned in the Cold War: You can trust the Russians, to be Russians.

Svetlana Rudneva on abortion in Russia

Chastnyi Korrespondent has an interview with Sveta Rudneva, head of the “Family and Childhood” foundation of Russia. Like many Russians, she’s worried about the demographic decline of Russia. As she rightly points out, abortion is perhaps the biggest factor driving Russia into the demographic ashbin of history.

Asked if she’s seen a spike in abortions since the economic crisis began, Rudneva answered yes, but said that the downturn only exacerbated an existing problem. In her opinion, the high abortion rate is not the result of economics or a lack of benefits, but rather a cultural problem. The current stereotype is that women marry at 22, divorce six years later, and then are left to raise the child without alimony. In such a climate, women are understandably reluctant to have multiple children. Rudneva hopes to see special pro-family television programming which will help “form a correct worldview” in young people of reproductive age.

Perhaps most interesting, she says that “often it is not the woman herself who takes the initiative, but those around her. Often her relatives bring her in almost as if ‘in convoy.’” Domestic violence is even a factor, with blackmail and forced abortions taking place.

Regarding the overall demographics of Russia, she is pessimistic, but believes it is still possible to correct the decline.

NOTE: All translations mine.

Two truths and a lie

Remember the old party game where you would say two true things about yourself and one lie? Friends would then try to guess which was which? Meeting with United Russia, Putin just played the same game with the economic crisis. Can you spot the lie?

1. The economic crisis will continue for a long time.
2. We have not yet seen its peak.
3. Russia is handling things just fine.

Asides

• Stephane and 3G's fun little disco number "We Don't Wanna Put-In" has been withdrawn from the Eurovision contest. Kudos to the band for not knuckling under to pressure and changing the lyrics. #